• Peak fiscal policy support, and therefore peak real GDP growth, was likely realized in 2021, and the global  economy now appears to be rapidly progressing toward late-cycle dynamics. Monetary policy in most  regions has shifted course toward normalization. 
  • Frictions in both goods and labor markets have spurred inflation. Our base case has global inflation  peaking by the first quarter and then moderating closer to central bank targets by the end of 2022, and  we are closely monitoring upside risks to that view. 
  • Risk premiums and yields don’t reflect potential downside scenarios, in our view, which warrants caution  and a rigorous approach to portfolio construction.  
  • We generally favor a duration underweight relative to the benchmark, and look to position portfolios for a  steeper yield curve. Given the likelihood for higher volatility, we anticipate active duration management to  potentially be a more significant source of alpha than in the past. 
  • We seek credit exposure from diversified sources, including non-agency U.S. mortgages, select COVID-19  recovery themes, and single-name opportunities. We have a constructive view on global equities, but are  preparing for late-cycle dynamics, with greater focus on security selection.


By Stocks Future

Stocks Future - magazine version anglaise/english du magazine francophone ACTION FUTURE www.stocks-future.com www.action-future.com et www.actionfuture.fr www.laboutiquedutrader.com

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