Par GP Bullhound
Trends & innovations shaping the global tech sector
THE VIEW From GP Bullhound
Par Per Roman – Managing Partner -GP Bullhound
Et Alec Dafferner – Partner -GP Bullhound
Technology’s transformative effect has
touched every corner of today’s world. Its
commercial, social and political impact has
been unprecedented. At GP Bullhound we
are proud to work with the entrepreneurs and
the world-leading companies that appreciate
technology’s potential – and work hard to turn
its promise into reality. Now entering its twelfth
year, our Technology Predictions report reflects
our optimistic mindset and demonstrates what
technology and its leading minds could achieve
over the next 12 months.
It has been a year of trials and tribulations for
technology as regulators have sought to match
its evolution with existing frameworks; yet this
report shows that technology does not just
move the goalposts, it reshapes the world
as we know it.
How we bank, shop and the type of money
we carry are all covered. Our predictions on
the rise of digital banks, the influence of crypto
currencies, and retailers’ attempts to upgrade
delivery systems exemplify how technology
impacts everyday decisions, as well as
shedding light on what businesses are doing
to speed up transactional processes and
introduce safeguards.
We also make our predictions on employee
engagement, subscription models and the
future of app stores, considering how we can
expect them to change and grow in 2019. Each
one shows how technology’s impact can be
laser-focused, laying strong, specific foundations
for future industries.
Meanwhile, we investigate what the next
12 months may hold for developments in AI,
advertising and retail. In each, we unearth
an unrelenting pace of change, which could
bring countless benefits – if pragmatic decisions
are made.
To do that, technology must be viewed as friend
not foe, which is one of the macro themes of
the report. Treating tech as a negative force will
limit the good it can do. How to balance fears
of technology with optimism of the better world
it can build looks set to carry on being
a question that defines our time.
Consumers are expecting technology to give
them a lot in return for very little: giving rise to
a second macro theme that emerges. Pressing
questions over what we get for what we give
will continue to be the focus of boardroom
and consumer debates.
The scope and scale of technology means
challenges will inevitably exist, so it is important
that we remain faithful to our belief that
technology is a positive force. This report is
intended to act as a roadmap to readers,
shedding light and expert opinion on the
trends that matter. We hope you find it useful.
TECHNOLOGY Predictions 2019
1. DIGITAL BANKING
Continues to Rise
Between 2017 and 2018 there was a 24% increase
in digital transactions, with more than two-thirds
of millennials in the US using their smartphone as
a wallet. This is creating an environment where
traditional financial institutions are implementing
innovative digital banking solutions, while start-ups
grow at a rapid rate due to the demand from
venture capitalists to invest in fintech.
2. APP DISTRIBUTION
Moving Away From Apple and Google
Income from apps makes up 20% and 18%
of Apple and Google’s respective revenues,
charging a commission to app developers to host
and distribute on their platforms. However, a backlash
is beginning with the tech giants becoming a leech
on app developers that have the product popularity
to stand alone.
3. EMPLOYEE ENGAGEMENT
Goes High Tech
Recruitment processes, data analytics and capital
management are just three areas of HR set to be
disrupted by new technology. HR tech could have
a major impact on the way teams manage their
internal processes, but artificial intelligence used
in HR will have to be tuneable in order to avoid
institutionalizing the biases it aims to eliminate.
4. RETAIL TECHNOLOGY
Gets Smarter
Traditional bricks and mortar retail still dominates
over e-commerce, making up 88% of global retail
purchases. Tech giants and online start-ups are even
turning their attention to physical rather than online
exclusive retail. A new age of retail is emerging, with
the combination of innovative technology and the
social dimension consumers enjoy in traditional retail.
5. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IS THE
End of Repetition, not the End of Life
The media narrative has often portrayed technology
as the end of the white-collar workforce, but like all
previous industrial revolutions, humans will adapt
to new technologies. Artificial intelligence is set to
improve working conditions, create more flexible
ways of working, and remove the need for humans
to take on time-consuming menial tasks.
6. CONSUMER SUBSCRIPTION
Set to Eclipse Advertising
As concerns of data misuse grow, and content
quality increases, it is becoming clearer that
consumers are more interested in reliable paid
subscription services. Growth in the digital ad
market is slowing, while subscription models
have grown in popularity, with more incentive
for companies to improve their products for
a loyal user base.
7. A BREAK-UP
of an Advertising Duopoly
Advertisers spent $4.6 billion on Amazon’s platform in
a watershed year that has seen advertising money
move away from the Google-Facebook duopoly,
which currently hold 58% of the market combined.
With the development of its own end-to-end service,
brands will begin to allocate budget to specialized
performance partners in order to get their product
in front of Amazon’s consumers.
8. LAST MILE DELIVERY
Going the Distance
More than half of shoppers under-35 expect to have
an option of same-day delivery, despite only two
of the top 50 online US retailers offering this. But with
next-day delivery already a staple, and Amazon
leading the way in developing fulfilment centers for
rapid delivery, more retailers will turn their attention
to last mile delivery solutions.
9. END OF
The Boys Club
Though the technology sector has been among
the most progressive when it comes to corporate
initiatives for reaching gender balance, veteran
female investors and executives are now taking
a different angle by improving accessibility to
the venture backed tech ecosystem for new
and prospective female entrants.
10. CRYPTOCURRENCY
Will Grow Up
We are yet to see the best of cryptocurrencies.
Blockchain activity is picking up with even
traditional financial institutions ensuring they
do not get left behind. 2019 should be the year
institutional capital flows into cryptocurrency, with
previous obstructions and tight regulations lifted.