By Ralph Ratterman, Board Member and Asset Manager at DHF Capital S.A

The US dollar continues its downward trajectory, hitting a multi-week low, influenced by market anticipation of an early Federal Reserve rate cut, possibly in March. This sentiment is reinforced by falling treasury yields which add to the pressure on the dollar. In the upcoming weeks, the dollar could continue to slide as traders monitor new data publications and their impact on monetary policy expectations.

The euro and pound are capitalizing on the dollar’s weakness. However, the rapidly deteriorating European economy, with countries like Germany facing recession risks, could compel the ECB to reconsider its current policy in its upcoming meeting. Market expectations are leaning towards an early ECB rate cut, as economic indicators suggest the necessity for such action. In the UK, recent data showing a contracting economy and decreasing inflation might push the BOE toward rate cuts. If inflation continues to decline and economic conditions worsen, the BOE might be prompted to act sooner.

The Japanese yen is strengthening against the dollar, buoyed by market speculation that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) might soon revise its policy stance. The country continues to see inflation consistently surpassing the BOJ’s 2% target.