By Rania Gule Market Analyst at

In a weekend surprise for the cryptocurrency community, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) surpassed the $40,000 level we discussed in our previous articles. As Monday’s trading began, Bitcoin was up by about 3.46%, trading near $41,330 with a market value of $796 billion and a trading volume of nearly $18.9 billion.

It’s worth noting that this is the first time Bitcoin’s price has risen above $40,000 since May 2022 or in the past 18 months. The cryptocurrency market is now eagerly anticipating the impact of both Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) and Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD) regarding the expected approval dates for the Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF).

I believe developments in the Bitcoin ETF will influence the current upward trend, pushing it towards $50,000. This is especially true with signs of slowing inflation, and investors gaining confidence that the Federal Reserve has concluded its series of interest rate hikes. Attention has shifted to expectations of potential interest rate cuts next year, supporting the current rise in global markets.

From my perspective, the cryptocurrency market will closely watch developments in applications submitted by major companies such as BlackRock Inc. to introduce the first Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) in the United States. I expect some of these funds to likely receive approval from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) by January next year, and the outcomes of these applications will have a significant impact on the digital asset market led by Bitcoin.

I also believe that Bitcoin prices continue to receive support from expectations of the SEC approving interest rate reductions on exchange-traded funds and federal interest rates in 2024. The next levels to watch are $42,330, with the nearest support at $39,500.

I do not anticipate any significant price retracements, as breaking through the $40,000 zones and maintaining stability above them, coupled with rising expectations of the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, the approaching halving event, and growing expectations of the Federal Reserve halting interest rate hikes, may lead to continued upward movement in the medium and long term. There is a possibility of Bitcoin reaching $60,000 before the second half of April 2024.

I also believe that comments from Powell last week played a role in the likelihood that the tightening cycle has peaked, leading bond yields to decline. Cryptocurrencies were performing well in sync with the rise in gold, supported by falling yields. It is noteworthy that Bitcoin surged even before the headlines of the approval of instant exchange-traded funds, indicating the current positivity in the market.

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